No, not the real “definition” of a recession. A true recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real Gross Domestic Product and we’re not there… yet. But do you think we’re in a recession based on what you are seeing in your community?
Living in Southern California it’s feels like it’s always feast or famine. Some days I am convinced that we are definitely in a recession (in certain neighborhoods at least) and then other days it almost feels like a healthy financial period. The “signs” that I see are restaurants that were normally very busy 1 ½ years ago now have empty tables and nail and hair salons are not as busy either… along with car washes and the malls.
Another really obvious sign of trouble are foreclosures. Driving through some neighborhoods they are everywhere and then in other areas they are few and far between. Just when I think it’s all going down hill I drive to another community and I don’t see even one distressed home.
Putting it all together I think that we are definitely seeing signs that we are heading towards a recession if we are not already in one, but I think that the most noteworthy piece of information is that it is localized. Some areas are really feeling the pinch and others, not so much. It appears that the hardest hit areas with foreclosure and recession like activity are the ones that have the most track homes as apposed to the areas with more custom homes.
My personal view is that although we are not in a depression based on the actual definition of the term, I believe that certain areas are definitely in a recession and that more will be soon. I don’t believe that any area is not being touched by the slow down, just not to the extent that others are.
What are you doing to recession proof your life? Are you putting away more money each month into savings? Are you thinking of back up plans incase you loose your job? Do you think that we are in a recession? What’s it like in your area?
Do you think we are in a recession?
March 2nd, 2008 at 09:22 am
March 2nd, 2008 at 09:29 am
I am very, very conscious of how much more everything costs today than just a few years ago, and how poorly my income has kept up with rising prices.
March 2nd, 2008 at 09:32 am
March 2nd, 2008 at 10:26 am
March 2nd, 2008 at 01:18 pm
As I've posted on the forums, I really don't see much sign of economic trouble in these parts.
March 2nd, 2008 at 02:03 pm
March 2nd, 2008 at 09:32 pm
Recessions can also occur in geographically isolated pockets, much like thunderstorms. And like the weather, recessions can also come and go, fluctuating along with the winds.
In the end, it's hard to predict when we're really in recession or not, because to me, the definition of "recession" is strictly academic. Pragmatically, you don't have to meet its definition requirements before deciding that the economy is already doing badly (as it is right now).
And much like a thunderstorm (or better yet, a hurricane), the question isn't whether or not it will happen, but whether we are each prepared to weather such storms.